August 12, 2016

The infusion of FY 2017 visa numbers will make EB-4 India and EB-4 Mexico current in October. The final action date for EB-4 El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras should move to a date sometime in the summer of 2015, and possibly beyond. Given the high applicant demand in this category for El Salvador relative to the other two countries, it is possible that we will see a more advanced final action date for Guatemala and Honduras.

Visa Bulletin Progress and Projections from the Department of State is a series of monthly reports from the AILA DOS Liaison Committee designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and projections. Immediately following publication of each month’s Visa Bulletin, AILA will “check-in” with Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories. Through these discussions, it is hoped that Charlie will provide us with additional insight, beyond the basic visa availability updates that are provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.

EB-1.

It is expected that EB-1 India and EB-1 China, which both had final action cut-off dates imposed late this fiscal year, will become current again in October.

EB-2 and EB-3.

Presently, the EB-2 Worldwide final action date lags behind EB-3 Worldwide, but this should not create the same EB-3 downgrade phenomenon we have witnessed in recent years in the China EB categories. We expect EB-2 Worldwide to become current again in October. Despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB-3 Worldwide, we do not expect it to become current. There is concern that there is demand in this category that has not yet materialized.

As predicted last month, the final action date for EB-2 China and EB-3 China will remain the same through the remainder of this fiscal year. In October, EB-2 China is expected to advance to a date in late 2011 or early 2012. EB-3 China’s final action date is expected to reach late 2012 or early 2013. Therefore, it is likely that we will once again see the EB-3 downgrade phenomenon next fiscal year, at least until the increase in EB-3 China demand generated by the downgrades levels out demand between the two categories.

In October, EB-2 India will likely move to a date in early 2007. Slow movements of a few weeks at a time are anticipated for EB-3 India, which is likely to remain at a 2005 date in October. EB-3 India is the last category in which there is still strong visibility (from the summer 2007 adjustment of status filings) into pre-adjudicated demand. As a result, there has not been any erratic movement in the final action date for this category in recent years.

EB-5 China.

There are no predictions at this time as to where EB-5 China dates will fall in the next fiscal year. Expect to have better information by late September to mid-October.