Family-Based Projections.

There are some favorable modifications to last month’s predictions for September in the family-based categories. The final action dates for F-2A and F-4 might require retrogression in September, an increase in returned unused visa numbers in July, and weak demand for these categories has allowed DOS to hold these dates for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Visa Bulletin Progress and Projections from the Department of State is a series of monthly reports from the AILA DOS Liaison Committee designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and projections. Immediately following publication of each month’s Visa Bulletin, AILA will “check-in” with Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories. Through these discussions, it is hoped that Charlie will provide us with additional insight, beyond the basic visa availability updates that are provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.

Consistent with previous predictions last month, F-4 Worldwide advanced slightly. There were also minor advances in all of the family Worldwide categories, and all of the F-2B categories with the exception of F-2B Mexico. F-3 and F-4 Mexico and F-3 and F-4 Philippines also crept slightly ahead to close out the fiscal year.

As noted in prior columns, the family-based categories tend to advance more consistently as the majority of demand in these categories materializes at consular posts. While we expect movements into the next fiscal year to also remain relatively steady, DOS will continue to comply with the Administration’s Visa Modernization Proposal by advancing the dates as aggressively as possible in the first three quarters of the fiscal year. While doing so helps to ensure that number use is maximized, it also results in few numbers being available for use in the final quarter, which can cause retrogressions, such as those experienced in the F-4 China and India preference categories.

Filing Dates.

As we approach the one year anniversary of the new Visa Bulletin format, There are no predictions in terms of “filing dates” as DOS had not yet met with the CIS Ombudsman’s Office at the time of this discussion. Stay tuned for the October Visa Bulletin!